DELPHI PROCESSES

According to the COMPUTER BASED DELPHI PROCESSES by Murray Turoff and Starr Roxanne Hiltz. The The name "Delphi" was never a term with which either Olaf Helmer or Norman Dalkey (the founders of the method) were particular happy. Since many of the early Delphi studies focused on utilizing the technique to make forecasts of future occurrences, the name was first applied by some others at Rand as a joke. The straightforward nature of utilizing an iterative survey to gather information "sounds" so easy to do that many people have done "one" Delphi, but never a second. Since the name gives no obvious insight into the method and since the number of unsuccessful Delphi studies probably exceeds the successful ones, there has been a long history of diverse definitions and opinions about the method. Some of these misconceptions are expressed in statements such as the following that one finds in the literature: It is a method for predicting future events. It is a method for generating a quick consensus by a group. It is the use of a survey to collect information. It is the use of anonymity on the part of the participants. It is the use of voting to reduce the need for long discussions. It is a method for quantifying human judgment in a group setting.


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